<p>11<span style="font-family:宋体">月第一周大盘分析</span></p><p><span style="display:none">&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="font-family:宋体">本周预判:股指上涨</span> <span style="font-family:宋体">高点</span>3430<span style="font-family:宋体">点</span> <span style="font-family:宋体">低点</span>3280<span style="font-family:宋体">点</span> </p><p><span style="display:none">&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="font-family:宋体">具体:星期一跌:</span>&nbsp; <span style="font-family:宋体">星期二跌:</span>&nbsp; <span style="font-family:宋体">星期三涨:</span>&nbsp; <span style="font-family:宋体">星期四涨:</span>&nbsp; <span style="font-family:宋体">星期五涨:</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;</span></p><h1><span style="font-family:宋体">一、技术面分析</span></h1><p>1<span style="font-family:宋体">、股指跌破</span>6<span style="font-family:宋体">日均线,但还在</span>13<span style="font-family:宋体">日均线上方,下面的支撑在</span>3280<span style="font-family:宋体">点,大约是</span>50<span style="font-family:宋体">日均线所在的位置;</span></p><p>2<span style="font-family:宋体">、日</span>K<span style="font-family:宋体">线连续两日形成十字星,多空双方在这里形成胶着状态,以现在的状态来看,上有压力,下有支撑,可能还是会胶着一周左右的时间,不排除有一个突然的下探动作,这是主力建仓的惯用手法,以区区几百点的空间,大资金是无法腾挪的,向下打开空间,才能向上拓展空间;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">3<span style="font-family:宋体">、股指在布林线的上轨和中轨之间运行,中轨形成有利支撑,中轨在</span>3280<span style="font-family:宋体">点;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">4<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>MACD<span style="font-family:宋体">红柱缩短,趋势向下;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">5<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>KDJ<span style="font-family:宋体">走平,指向性不很明显;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">6<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>OBV<span style="font-family:宋体">的白线已经向下拐头,趋势向下;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">7<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>SAR<span style="font-family:宋体">的绿点出现,趋势变成以空头为主;</span></p><p>8<span style="font-family:宋体">、从周量能线来看,开始缩量,有个下跌的过程,可能会打到</span>6<span style="font-family:宋体">周均线附近,</span>6<span style="font-family:宋体">周均线在</span>3252<span style="font-family:宋体">点;</span></p><p>9<span style="font-family:宋体">、上周</span>13<span style="font-family:宋体">周均线起到暂时的支撑作用,但从目前态势看,比较脆弱,应该会再下探并破</span>13<span style="font-family:宋体">周均线;</span></p><p>10<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>MACD60<span style="font-family:宋体">分钟形成顶背离,需要几个交易日才能化解,理论上来讲需要回到</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>15<span style="font-family:宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体">和</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>21<span style="font-family:宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体">开始的起涨点,也就是</span>3250-3300<span style="font-family:宋体">一线。</span></p><h1><span style="font-family:宋体">二、政策面分析</span></h1><p style=";margin-bottom:0;line-height:20px;background:white">1、<span style="font-size:14px">李克强主持召开国务院党组会议,会议指出:要扩大有效投资和消费,稳定外贸发展。</span></p><p style=";margin-bottom:0;line-height:20px;background:white"><span style="font-size:14px">要多措并举,促进经济中高速增长;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px"><strong>2</strong><strong><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span></strong><span style="font-family:宋体">中国人民银行、商务部、上海市政府等多个部门联合发布了“关于印发《进一步推进中国(上海)自由贸易试验区金融开放创新试点加快上海国际金融中心建设方案》的通知;</span></p><p style="margin-left:13px"><span style="font-family:宋体">三、基本面分析</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px"><span style="font-family:宋体">利好:</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">1<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月中国官方非制造业</span>PMI<span style="font-family:宋体">为</span>53.1%<span style="font-family: 宋体">,比上月回落,但仍处于扩张区间;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">2<span style="font-family:宋体">、中国</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月官方制造业</span>PMI<span style="font-family:宋体">为</span>49.8<span style="font-family: 宋体">,和上月持平;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">3<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style=";font-family:宋体">10</span><span style=";font-family:宋体">月百城住宅均价连续第3个月双涨 同比涨2.07%;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">4<span style="font-family:宋体">、上周人民币汇率暴涨,打空头一个措手不及,证明了央行强大的人民币汇率控制能力,本周人民币汇率看涨;</span></p><h1><span style="font-family:宋体">四、资金面分析</span></h1><p><strong><span style="font-family:宋体">利好:</span></strong></p><p>1<span style="font-family:宋体">、上周资金净流入</span>685<span style="font-family:宋体">亿,超级机构、机构和散户资金净流入,大户和中户资金净流入;</span></p><p>2<strong><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体">投保基金<strong>:</strong></span>2015<span style="font-family:宋体">年</span>10<span style="font-family: 宋体">月</span>19<span style="font-family:宋体">到</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>23<span style="font-family:宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体">,证券保证金流入</span>125<span style="font-family:宋体">亿;</span></p><p><strong>3</strong><strong><span style="font-family:宋体">、</span></strong>2015<span style="font-family:宋体">年</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>19<span style="font-family: 宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体">—</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>23<span style="font-family: 宋体">日</span> <span style="font-family:宋体">新增投资者</span>33.03<span style="font-family:宋体">万人;</span></p><p>4<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style=";font-family:宋体;background:white">住房公积金信贷资产证券化提上日程;</span></p><p><span style=";font-family:Tahoma;background:white">5</span><span style=";font-family:宋体;background:white">、国家队持有近一半</span><span style=";font-family:Tahoma;background:white">A</span><span style=";font-family:宋体;background:white">股上市公司</span> <span style=";font-family:宋体;background:white">市值</span><span style=";font-family:Tahoma;background:white">1.36</span><span style=";font-family:宋体;background:white">万亿;</span></p><p><span style=";font-family:Tahoma;background:white">6</span><span style=";font-family:宋体;background:white">、</span>众禄基金研究中心仓位测算的结果显示,本期(2015-10-19~2015-10-23)样本内开放式偏股型基金(包括股票型基金和混合型基金,剔除QDII和指数型基金)平均仓位自节前的79.16%上升2.61个百分点至81.77%。股票型基金平均仓位为87.37%,比上周上升1.99个百分点;而混合型基金平均仓位为71.70%,较前期上升3.70个百分点。</p><p>7、国家队持股市值达13579亿元,约占两市流通市值的3.5%;</p><p><strong><span style="font-family:宋体">利空:</span></strong></p><p>1<span style="font-family:宋体">、截至</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>29<span style="font-family:宋体">日</span> <span style="font-family:宋体">两市两融余额</span>1035.85<span style="font-family:宋体">亿元;</span></p><p>2<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>2015<span style="font-family:宋体">年</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>30<span style="font-family: 宋体">日</span> <span style="font-family:宋体">上海</span>A<span style="font-family: 宋体">股市净率</span>1.96<span style="font-family:宋体">深圳</span>A<span style="font-family:宋体">股市净率</span>4.28<span style="font-family:宋体">;</span></p><p>3<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>2015<span style="font-family:宋体">年</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>30<span style="font-family: 宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体">上海</span>A<span style="font-family: 宋体">股平均市盈率</span>16.69,10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>29<span style="font-family:宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体">深圳</span>A<span style="font-family:宋体">股平均市盈率</span>45.64<span style="font-family:宋体">;</span></p><p>4<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>2015<span style="font-family:宋体">年</span>10<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>30<span style="font-family: 宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体">,证券化率</span>75.09%<span style="font-family:宋体">;</span></p><p>5<span style="font-family:宋体">、下周</span>34<span style="font-family:宋体">家公司解禁,市值环比大增</span>5<span style="font-family:宋体">倍。</span></p><h1><span style="font-family:宋体">五、行为金融学分析</span></h1><p>&nbsp; <span style="font-family:宋体">人民币汇率战波澜壮阔,在中美对抗和美元加息的背景下,人民币必贬无疑,但央行绝地反击,反其道而行之,在人民币汇率上秀了一下肌肉,证明央行管控风险的能力还是比较强的,现在英、德和</span>IMF<span style="font-family:宋体">明确表示支持人民币纳入</span>SDR<span style="font-family:宋体">,纳入</span>SDR<span style="font-family: 宋体">的好处自是不必说了。中国也发布了一个重磅文件,加快在上海搞金融创新,表明了开放金融的态度,目前来看,机遇更多一点。最近中外交流更多了一些,天下熙熙皆为利往,国际交往也应该离不开一个利字,双边合同的签订是有利于长期经济发展的。</span></p><p>&nbsp; <span style="font-family:宋体">国家放开二胎,必然会形成小的婴儿潮,从人口经济学的角度讲,婴儿潮是有利于经济发展的,各国的实践也证明了这一点,虽说,现在很多人并不看好二胎的放开,主要是育儿成本高,还有新一代的生育观念,但中国人多字多福的传统心理是很难改变的,三十年残酷计划生育政策也没能彻底改变,不是还有存钱不如存人的说法吗?所以,二胎的放开,肯定能形成一波婴儿潮,为经济发展打下人口基础。</span></p><p>&nbsp; <span style="font-family:宋体">应该说经济下滑态势在各种忽悠下得到了暂时的遏制,代表作是</span>PMI<span style="font-family:宋体">不再下滑就是代表作之一,可以说最坏的时间已经过去,即便</span>A<span style="font-family:宋体">股不上涨,也应该不会大幅下跌,国家队持有</span>1<span style="font-family:宋体">万多亿的股票,至少这部分占</span>A<span style="font-family:宋体">股流通市值</span>3.5%<span style="font-family:宋体">的筹码暂时就被锁定掉了,接下来的日子,还有各种刺激和放水,可以说最坏的数据已经出现,如果不出意外,下个月的数据会比较好看,透出寒冬的暖意,这一点,各大机构是很容易预测的,如果是这样,大型机构肯定是要建仓的,今年太惨了,能不能扳点回来,就看这一波了。</span></p><h1><span style="font-family:宋体">六、消息面分析</span></h1><p style="margin-left:28px">1<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span><span style="font-family:宋体">IMF</span><span style="font-family:宋体">代表向中国发出了强烈信号,人民币有望纳入SDR货币篮;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px"><span style="font-family:宋体">2</span><span style="font-family:宋体">、中韩自贸区将形成12万亿美元市场;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">3<span style="font-family:宋体">、</span>11<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>2<span style="font-family: 宋体">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体">,国产</span>C9191<span style="font-family:宋体">客机举行隆重的下线仪式;</span></p><p style="margin-left:28px">4<span style="font-family:宋体">、巡视组进驻证监会。</span></p><h1><span style="font-family:宋体">七、本周重要事件及会议</span></h1><p>11<span style="font-family:宋体">月</span>2<span style="font-family: 宋体">日</span>&nbsp;&nbsp; <span style="font-family:宋体">法国总统访华</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">11</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">月3日</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">上海工博会</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><strong><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></strong><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">第三届上海国际海洋技术与工程设备展览会</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">中国页岩气发展大会</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">上海国际石墨烯展览会</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2015</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">中国电子导热散热材料及设备展览会</span></p><p style="text-indent:84px;line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">第一届中国互联网安全领袖峰会</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">11</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">月4日</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2015</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">上海国际建筑工业化展览会—保温材料与节能技术展</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">上海智慧城市建设展览会</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">11</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">月5日</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">习近平访越</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">11</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">月6日</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">习近平访新加坡</span></p><p style="text-indent:77px;line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height: 150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;2015</span><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">第四届中国充换电技术高峰论坛</span></p><p style="line-height:150%"><span style=";line-height:150%;font-family:宋体">&nbsp;</span></p><h1><span style="font-family:宋体">八、本周选股</span></h1><p><span style="font-family:宋体">中电远达</span> 600292 <span style="font-family:宋体">现价</span> 19.86<span style="font-family:宋体">元</span> <span style="font-family:宋体">碳排放龙头股。</span></p><p style="text-indent:28px;line-height:150%"><br></p><p style="margin-left:350px">2015<span style="font-family:宋体">年</span>11<span style="font-family: 宋体">月</span>1<span style="font-family:宋体">日</span></p><p><br></p>