<p><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><span style="background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">1</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></span></span><strong style="line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信交运:姜明】安信跨境电商深度-物流篇:提速、再提速!抢夺5年2000亿市场</span></strong><span style="font-family:Simsun"><span style="font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium">我国跨境电商产业发展速度非常快,国家大力扶持的原因更大程度在于出口,但我们看到进口的B2C细分市场以更快的速度增长,有投资人担心当行邮税趋同于一般贸易税率的时候,海淘市场就会大幅萎缩,其实这个观点是片面的,税收只是跨境B2C进口的优势之一,更重要的是它的SKU和扁平化渠道会加速传统B2B贸易的去环节化,B2C市场衍生出的碎片化配套物流未来5年将有2000亿的增量,传统物流已急不可耐,剩下的就是如何整合优势参与其中,这份报告将从一个大框架下描述跨境电商产业链、配套物流市场以及相关标的的投资价值,建议买入外运发展。</span></span></p><p><font face="KaiTi_GB2312" size="3"><br></font><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">2</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信计算机:胡又文、汤旸玚、李小伟、吕伟】紫光股份大涨,世界级云计算巨头强势崛起,第一目标价120元</span></strong><span style="font-family:Simsun"></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, 微软雅黑, &#39;Microsoft JhengHei&#39;, 华文黑体, arial, sans-serif, STHeiti, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0px;"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">再次强调核心逻辑:1)新华三在国内企业网络设备市场独占鳌头,紫光入股后,获得国资身份,优势巨大;2)西数+SanDisk在HDD全球市场份额第一,SSD全球市场份额第二,大数据时代数据量激增,HDD和SDD空间广阔;3)公司携手世纪互联和微软切入云计算运营,为政企客户提供符合国家信息安全的公有云、混合云解决方案;4)公司的国有身份、市场机制、高校资源、团队激励、资本能力国内少有,连续收购新华三、WDC+SanDisk,携手微软、世纪互联,开创中国IT产业资本输出先河,作为IT产业整合大平台,极具稀缺性,继续强烈推荐。</span></span><br><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><br></strong></span><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">3</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信计算机:胡又文、汤旸玚、李小伟、吕伟】人工智能产业趋势再验证:中科院与戴尔人工智能联合实验室今日揭牌&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">由中科院自动化研究所与戴尔(中国)有限公司合作建立的“人工智能与先进计算联合实验室”在北京正式举行揭牌仪式。投资建议:人工智能是我国科技跨越式发展和经济结构转型的天赐良机,本次顶级科研机构和产业巨头合作再次验证了其产业前景,如果我国在国家层面制订人工智能发展战略,并加快推进,完全有可能利用市场需求优势、用户数据优势等,实现“弯道超车”。重点推荐科大讯飞汉王科技东方网力思创医惠东方国信佳都科技。</span></span><br><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><br></strong></span><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">4</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信机械军工:邹润芳、王书伟、郑爱刚、朱元骏】机器人:与西门子战略合作强化“软”实力,打造未来工业4.0龙头&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">公司公告与西门子签订全面战略合作伙伴协议,双方将在数字化制造领域开展全方位的合作。</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">我们认为本次合作是中德两国工业4.0领域战略合作的缩影。</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">我们看好智能制造在中国的发展前景,推荐板块,重点机器人黄河旋风巨星科技科远股份等。新松推荐逻辑如下:1)新松是我国未来工业4.0龙头,未来软硬能力都会很强;2)特种及服务机器人是未来新蓝海;3)增发完成后,将有利于节约财务费用,预计未来将在全球范围内进行产业整合。我们预计公司2015年-2017年EPS分别为0.7、1.08、1.4元,持续推荐。</span><br><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><br></strong></span><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">5</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信家电:蔡雯娟、孙珊】2015年三季报总结回顾:空调去库存拖累整体板块,积极关注业绩稳健标的</span></strong><span style="font-family:Simsun"></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">受白电板块拖累,家电板块收入延续上一季度下滑态势;</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">受黑电、白电板块拖累,家电板块单季归母净利润首现负增长;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">白电板块,去库存加剧,业绩单季出现负增长;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">黑电,毛利率下降导致业绩大幅下滑;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">厨电及小家电板块,利润率与去年同期持平,盈利稳健;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">零部件,毛利率提升、汇兑收益助推净利率提升。</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">投资建议:当前板块估值水平仅高于银行与非银板块,具有相对配置价值。从细分板块及个股看:</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">1)全年看好客厅经济的发展,首推兆驰股份、其次推荐海信电器;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">2)白电方面板块,推荐业绩稳健的小天鹅A,关注积极转型的奥马电器;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">3)厨电板块,推荐龙头老板电器,建议关注华帝股份;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">4)看好我国小家电的持续普及,推荐小家电龙头爱仕达苏泊尔。&nbsp;</span><br><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><br></strong></span><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">6</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信有色:衡昆、齐丁】11月观点:精选确定性机会,主推天齐锂业、稀土板块</span></strong><span style="font-family:Simsun"></span><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px">11月份的有色板块,我们的整体观点是总体看多,但博弈氛围比较重,所以要精选确定性机会。&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px">首先,我们推荐锂资源的龙头标的,天齐锂业。</span><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px">锂矿石、碳酸锂价格持续上涨,碳酸锂价格年末有望涨到7万以上,明年可能还会继续上涨10%;</span><span style="font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">投资天齐,实际上就是在投资他的资源垄断地位,以及对锂价的业绩弹性。</span><span style="font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">第二,我们继续推荐稀土和磁材板块。</span><span style="font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">我们认为,在前面的大逻辑基础上,10月、11月份的补库旺季仍将支持稀土价格的进一上涨,我们是坚定看多稀土及磁材股的。轻稀土标的建议关注北方稀土盛和资源等;重稀土建议关注五矿稀土、广晟有色厦门钨业等标的;磁材股建议关注宁波韵升正海磁材中科三环银河磁体等。&nbsp;</span><br><strong style="font-family: Simsun;line-height: 1.5"><br></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, 微软雅黑, &#39;Microsoft JhengHei&#39;, 华文黑体, arial, sans-serif, STHeiti, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0px;"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">7</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><strong style="background-color: inherit">【安信商社:刘章明、张璐芳】十三五,创新驱动,教育先行</strong></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">十三五规划中大篇幅阐述“深入实施创新驱动发展战略”,重点提到发挥科技创新在全面创新中的引领作用,推进有特色高水平大学和科研院所建设。</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">教育改革是深入实施创新驱动发展战略的前提,也是未来10-20年产业化空间大、成长型投资机会多的重点领域。</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">推荐:新南洋、银润投资、中国高科洪涛股份中泰桥梁威创股份全通教育同济科技复旦复华等;同时关注文化长城秀强股份、恒立实业、凤凰传媒世纪鼎利。</span><br style="background-color: inherit"/><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><br style="background-color: inherit"/></span></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">8</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><strong style="background-color: inherit">【安信化工:王席鑫、孙琦祥、肖晴】国瓷材料:参股氧化锆下游企业,产业链整合开始启动</strong></span><strong style="font-family: Simsun;line-height: 1.5"></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">公司与深圳爱尔创科技全体股东签订增资协议,本次增资后,公司占深圳爱尔创25%的股份。&nbsp;</span></span><span style="line-height: 1.5"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">参股氧化锆下游公司延伸产业链;</span></span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">纳米复合氧化锆下游应用广泛,公司放量在即;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">公司优势在于掌握水热法技术,不断开发新型高纯纳米材料;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">陶瓷墨水行业进入高速增长期;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">高纯超细氧化铝有望实现技术突破,涉足高毛利锂电池隔膜市场;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">董事长与员工共同参与定增,未来发展可期。我们预计公司15-17年的eps分别为0.45,0.75和1.00元,给予买入-A评级。</span><strong style="font-family: Simsun;line-height: 1.5"><br></strong><strong style="font-family: Simsun;line-height: 1.5"><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">9</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信环保:邵琳琳】环保行业三季报总结--向好趋势明显,持续看好行业发展&nbsp;</span></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">我们选取54家环保公司作为我们的样本进行研究,前三季度安信环保组合营业收入增长13%,净利润同比增加23%,业绩靓丽,显示出行业的高景气度。</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">投资建议:新环保法的实施对于环保行业推动起到巨大作用,加上政府工作报告中提到的“铁腕治理”,环保行业的景气度持续向好,我们认为行业有望受益于政策、模式、价改等变化,迎来盈利、估值双驱动。选股方面,我们从上至下推荐PPP、集中供热和国企改革三个细分子行业,重点推荐聚光科技长青集团碧水源洪城水业维尔利环能科技,建议关注迪森股份江南水务。</span><br><span style="font-family:Simsun"><strong><br></strong></span><strong style="font-family: Simsun;line-height: 1.5"><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">10</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信钢铁:衡昆、秦源】宝钢股份:毛利率亦大幅下降,理性看待汇兑损失</span></strong><span style="font-family:Simsun"></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255)"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">毛利率亦大幅下降:三季报披露公司报告期内收入414.2亿元,净利润-9.2亿元,扣非后净利润-10.79亿元。</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">汇兑损失是导致公司业绩大幅下滑的重要因素,但我们认为在这一问题上也不必对公司过于苛责。</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">投资建议:公司是国内钢铁行业的龙头,湛江投产开启了公司的内涵式扩张。长远来看,随着国内钢铁行业进入去产能的整合期会利用公司这样的行业龙头。但展望2015年全年,公司盈利将大幅下降,湛江项目短期内也难以实现盈利;下调2015年到2017年的盈利预测至7.99亿元、34.39亿元和71.81亿元,折合每股EPS为0.05元、0.21元和0.44元;下调公司评级至增持-A,6个月目标价7元。</span><br style="background-color: inherit"/><strong style="font-family: Simsun;line-height: 24px"><br></strong><strong style="font-family: Simsun;line-height: 24px"><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">11</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit">【安信地产:陈天诚】15年三季报回顾:业绩难比二季度,集中火力在一线</span></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.5"><span style="font-family:KaiTi_GB2312;font-size:16px;background-color: inherit">三季度营收利润增速大幅回落、全年业绩依旧承压;</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">行业集中度逐年提升,但增速放缓;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5"><span style="background-color: inherit">ROE微降</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">、利润率、杠杆和周转率与去年同期持平;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">存货增幅放缓、去化依旧路漫漫;</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">回款率改善明显、现金流压力缓解。</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">投资建议:</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">虽然政策密集布局,双降、开放二胎等多轮驱动,但仅对供需结构相对健康的一二线城市效果较为明显,持续的降息周期大幅降低了购房者贷款压力,尤其是一线城市房价将持续回升,购房热情再度被点燃,投资依旧建议聚焦一线地产和地产国企改革股:<span style="background-color: inherit">1</span>)</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">一线地产:</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">嘉宝集团华夏幸福中国武夷保利地产;<span style="background-color: inherit">2</span>)改革转型:南京高科中房地产高新发展云南城投。</span><br><strong style="font-family: Simsun;line-height: 24px"><br></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, 微软雅黑, &#39;Microsoft JhengHei&#39;, 华文黑体, arial, sans-serif, STHeiti, sans-serif;font-size: 14px;text-indent: 0px;"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><strong><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Simsun;background-color: inherit"><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit"><strong style="background-color: inherit;font-family: Simsun"><strong style="background-color: inherit"><strong><strong><strong style="font-family: 微软雅黑"><span style="color:#c00000;font-family:Arial;background-color: inherit;font-size: 26px">12</span></strong></strong></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><strong style="background-color: inherit">【安信固定收益:罗云峰】两张表概览中国债务——9月中国债务数据综述</strong></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">1)9月底中国总债务(不含外债)规模193.5万亿元,前值191.6万亿元。</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">2)9月底中国总债务同比增长18.8%,前值19.0%。</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: KaiTi_GB2312;font-size: medium;line-height: 1.5">3)我们以总债务同比增速减货币供给同比增速衡量货币供需缺口,市场条件下货币供需缺口上升意味着收益率整体面临上升压力,反之则面临下降压力。我们测算的9月底中国货币供给同比增长13.1%,前值14.3%;9月底货币供需缺口为5.7%,前值4.7%。</span></p>