<p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【消息偏空】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【资本市场未来五年发展思路明晰】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>“十三五”规划建议对资本市场发展提出了“积极培育公开透明、健康发展的资本市场”、“提高直接融资比重”、“推进资本市场双向开放”等目标,并涉及包括股票及债券发行交易制度改革、创业板和新三板市场改革、降低杠杆率等多项具体工作。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(0, 112, 192);">(欧阳:其中的重点,应该是股票及债券的发行交易制度改革,小打小闹还是刮骨疗伤,骑驴看唱本。且当做长期利好来看待吧。)</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【10月以来两融余额首现连降】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>据数据,截至11月2日,沪深股市融资融券余额报10305.99亿元,较上个交易日减少了25.01亿元,降幅为0.24%,为10月21日以来的新高。其中,沪市两融余额报6265.57亿元,较前一交易日减少22.88亿元;深市两融余额报4040.43亿元,与前一交易日相比减少了2.12亿元。由此,深市两融余额占比继续上升至39.20%,而沪市两融占比回落至60.80%。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>昨日沪股通净卖出金额为8.50亿元。10月16日~11月3日,沪股通已连续11个交易日净流出A股。10月23日~11月2日,A股融资余额已连续7个交易日保持在万亿元之上。10月29日~11月2日,A股融资余额分别为1.0321万亿元、1.0312万亿元和1.0277万亿元。即A股融资余额已连降两日。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(0, 112, 192);">(欧阳:融资余额变化,基本体现了股市的方向。融资余额连续下降,沪股通连续11个交易日净流出,说明市场短期看空。)</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【“国家队”基金操盘路径解密】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>随着基金三季报的披露,手握2000亿元资金的5只“国家队”基金的操盘路径得以曝光。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>5只“国家队”基金中,2只成立于7月13日,另有3只成立于7月31日,这意味着,按照6个月的建仓时间来算,上述5只基金均处于建仓期,但从其三季度末的仓位来看,多数采取了迅猛建仓的策略。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(0, 112, 192);">(欧阳:基金仓位过重,对后市是利空,因为没有钱再买入了。好在这只是这2000亿基金的持仓情况,没有其他基金持仓比的数据,但就这条消息而言,是利空。)</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【IMF今议SDR调整&nbsp;人民币入篮概率大】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>根据摩根大通近日提供的信息显示,国际货币基金组织(IMF)将于11月4日召开董事会会议,讨论是否对特别提款权货币篮子进行调整。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>不过,摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌表示,IMF决策公布日期尚不确定,这也就意味着,最终决定可能在会后立即公布,也有可能在几周后才揭晓。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(0, 112, 192);">(欧阳:RMB如能加入特别提款权(SDR),有利于人民币国际化,利好债券市场,对股市的实质性影响有限。)</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【近400家公司仍在停牌&nbsp;股权质押地雷待引爆】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>截至11月3日,两市仍有397家公司停牌,其中不少公司大股东在三季度市场暴跌时,身陷高比例股权质押爆仓风险。据证券时报记者不完全统计,仍有超过20家停牌公司大股东高比例股权质押,国庆节后A股市场平稳交易,但这些公司股价距离上半年高点仍有相当差距,相关公司复牌后股价风险较大。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(0, 112, 192);">(欧阳:这应该是近期压制股市连续上涨的最大威胁。)</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【美股道琼斯指数上涨0.50%,原油期货上涨3.8%】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(0, 112, 192);">(欧阳:美股持续上涨,对A股是小利好。)</span></p><hr style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-family: arial, simsun; font-size: 18px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【欧阳观点】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">消息面来看,两融余额首现连降、国家队基金高仓位持股、股权质押地雷再被媒体提及,都是利空。</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">从分时来看,昨天全天下跌有量上涨无量,显示空头占优,尾盘略微有资金入场,可能是博取早盘冲高的短线资金,昨日美股上涨,因此总体而言,今天大概率随美股冲高后回落。连续的小幅调整之后,今天消息面偏空,或有加速一跌结束短期的调整态势!</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">今天要上涨,只能是一种情况:放量上攻。</span></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【今天关键点位】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>创业今日分时压力线:2454,2470,日线级别强弱分界线:2470</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>沪指今日分时压力线:3338,3348,日线级别强弱分界线:3360</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: rgb(192, 80, 77);">【操作策略】</span></strong></p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>仓位只留底仓观望。</p><p style="list-style: none; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 18px; line-height: 26px; word-wrap: break-word; font-family: arial, simsun; white-space: normal; widows: 1;>个股分化明显,应区别对待,最佳策略是随股价上涨提高止盈位置!</p><p><br></p>