<div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">上一交易日,2015-11-6,周五,大盘冲到了3596.38,</span></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">大盘收盘于3590.03,<strong>周线成巨阳突破了3507的重要压力位</strong>,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">创2015-8-26的2850.71低点反弹后的新高,从2850向上已经上涨了20.44%,振幅26.16%,<strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">月线属单边上扬,周线巨阳回补了3373-3507的周K线巨大缺口,呈震荡上扬走势,日线呈盘整向上的走势。</span></strong><br>  周末,有IPO重启的消息,年内可能有两次IPO,如何看待得看下周A股的反映?我们不妨提前理性分析一下当下的行情时点下,这消息对市场的影响和意义。特此,<strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">做消息、基本、技术、资金和市场心理多层面的全面分析。各位请仔细看清楚了!</span></strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 20px;"><strong>一、重启IPO会给A股补血</strong></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  A股重启IPO,申购</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">资金</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">的来源就是分析的要点之一。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>1、一级、二级市场联合筹资打新</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  如果申购资金来自现有的二级市场存量资金,则对股市是利空,二级市场会失血,在场外资金不进场接盘的情况下,股市看跌</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">,这个看似不太可能,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">新股申购资金也不能只从二级市场筹集到,历年的IPO都是如此。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>2、新股上市不会破发</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  如果是场外资金来申购,上市开盘后,二级市场没有增加存量资金来炒作,对股市也不是利好,因为接盘的量小,不容易产生急速上涨带来赚钱效应,抛售就会加大,则一级市场的申购资金和</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">上市公司都</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">无法套现,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">抛压一大就不好说了,这种后果是国家要避免的,所以预判,新股上市不会破发。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">3、一级、二级市场都会有</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;">增量</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;">资金介入</span></span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">  如果发行顺利并上市开盘后有较好的赚钱效应,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">会使得今后更多的资金涌向一级市场,再次申购后续的IPO新股,则二级市场继续炒作新股的力量会加强,带来二级市场的新增资金不断进场,股市就看涨了。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>4、空仓或轻仓的基金将跑步进场</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  之前很多基金都处于观望,仓位都不高,三季报显示,基金还在观望的较多。即便是十月份的局部牛市行情中,基金也是多以年底的吃饭行情看待,这点可从今年十月份成交量得以佐证,成交量在高位不仅没有有效放大,而且还缩量很多。所以,在今年顺利逃顶的基金会急于申购新股,<span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><strong>申购前也必须买入A股相应数量的股票,为的是能有权中签更多的新股。</strong></span>二级市场的增量资金的</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">大量</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">快速介入,A股看涨。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>5、国家队救市资金不会再次被套</strong></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  最坏的结果就是,IPO这消息一出来,下周股市连续大跌不止,就可能是市场不认可再次IPO,国家要是还硬开IPO,造成市场的大跌,则国家队救市的资金还有再次被再次套的可能,这也是国家不愿意看到的,这应该是不会发生的,或是非常小的小概率事件。所以,<span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><strong>如果A股在重启IPO前下跌,很可能救市基金打压吸筹,是假摔,为的是拿到相应的筹码来申购更多的新股,顺便洗盘。</strong></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;"><strong>二、申购资金分析</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><strong><br></strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;">1、看发行市盈率来定价</span></strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  如果新股上市就跌破发行价,或没有多大收益,市场在以后的申购中就不会积极申购,那发行的市盈率就会下调,直至能对市场产生吸引力为止。看看截止今日的A股平均市盈率比较:<br>————————————————————<br>指数 动态市盈率 静态市盈率</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">--------------------------------------------------</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">上证指数</span>&nbsp;<span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">16.15</span>&nbsp;<span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">18.11</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">深证成指 42.86 63.50</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">中小板指数 51.08 81.93</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">创业板指数 83.19 161.15</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">————————————————————</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">根据以往的经验,<span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">以动态市盈率折半的价格发行新股,对市场还是有吸引力的。</span></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">为了能达到顺利发行新股之目的,在当下行情中,没有理由将发行市盈率定的很高,要“</span></strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">力保重启IPO的开门红</span></span></strong><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">”是政府要做的。</span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">2、</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;">造成全民申购奇观</span></span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>(1)以往申购新股是部分人参与</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  申购新股的主要以机构为主,散户次之。今年下半年的熊市,套牢了太多的散户,新股中签率即便提高到2%,用以前的“先缴款后中签”的方式重启IPO,被套散户申购抛掉股票就还有较大不中签的风险,散户也是抛不太多的,肯定是不好参与申购的。今年上半年的牛市后,机构现在的资金充裕,申购自然积极,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">每次申购新股,基金都是主力,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">参与申购的散户应主要由两种人:一是短线客,散户被深套割肉申购新股的比例和概率不大,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">少量参与也有可能,但不足为论;二是对二级市场风险厌恶者,专业从事一级市场的打新者,他们专爱做无风险套利</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>(2)打新专业户将被消灭</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;<wbr/>  以往多在一级市场专业打新的资金,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">在新政下,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">这种无风险套利的方式将失去盈利的土壤,将</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">不会再留恋无风险的一级市场,会被逼无奈地来到二级市场,二级市场增量资金加大,A股是要看涨了。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong><br></strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>(3)股票开户数会大增</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  打新是按人头算的,围捕新股提高中签率,会促使更多的资金进入股市,<strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">可能会重现上世纪九〇年代初的“</span></strong></span><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>借身份证开户</strong></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>”的景象,形成“</strong></span><strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">全民炒股</strong><strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;">”是奇观。</strong></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">即便不会使营业部再次人满为患,网上开户的人也将会暴增,根本不知股票为何物的人都会开户或被开户,相应的增量资金将入市,A股还是看涨。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;">3、市场会更加平稳</span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  重启IPO的新规则是“<strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">先申购后付款</span></strong>”,有几点重要意义:</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">(</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">1</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">)、保证股市不仅不会失血,还会补血。</span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  消息说,<strong>本次申购政策是“</strong></span><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">先申购后付款</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">”,有关问题要优先考虑:即便你现在满仓没有盈利,甚至被深套,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;"><span style="text-decoration:underline;">假如</span></span></strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;"><span style="text-decoration:underline;">你</span></span></strong><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;"><span style="text-decoration:underline;">中签了,你会割肉付款吗?</span></span><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;">以我对国民性格</span></strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;">的</span></strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;">理解</span></strong><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;">,他们会坚决割肉,去赌一把新股上市的新运气,赌自己的凤凰涅磐重生!!!</span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  当然,盈利后申购新股就比较轻松了,他们也不会再次加大抛售力度,在保持自己仓位安全的范围内后,就可放飞利润。<strong>国家这新政策就是针对当前的市场心理制定的</strong>!</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">这就<strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;">保证了二级市场场内资金不再大幅离场的前提下,还能保证IPO的顺利发行。</span></strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">(</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">2</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">)、加快筹码的换手速度,换手效率高。</span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  申购完成后,被套散户申购新股成功了,就会割肉买进一级市场的新股,加快了被套筹码的清洗速度,也加快了盈利筹码的高抛,换手率会增加。新增资金进场护盘IPO上市,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">实际上不会用太大的力量,就能把新股以“一字涨停板”的方式推向高位,产生巨大的新股赚钱效应,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">大盘指数就不会大跌,可能呈小幅震荡走势。震荡来自于申购成功后抛售筹集申购缴款资金,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">也来自于新股上市时的护盘资金的撤出,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">有可能有短暂的下跌,<strong>使得股指能维持在一个“</strong></span><strong style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;">不低</span></strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><strong>”的较为“</strong></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;">合理</span></strong></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><strong>”的价格范围内,甚至创出新高,以利后续新股的上市开盘套现离场。</strong>那些申购不成功的人群,自然也不会大力再抛售股票了,他们会继续跟着行情上下波动,间接帮助市场锁定了A股的大部分的筹码。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>(</strong></span><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">3</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">)、股市震荡区间比以往更小,打新对上涨市的影响变小。</span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  以往股市的申购有很不确定性,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">“先缴费后中签”的IPO模式,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">只能用大资金围猎较少的新股,在数十倍的新股发行所需资金撤离二级市场的情况下,大盘对资金的需求太紧,就会产生大跌,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">申购四天后巨量资金再次进场,也会使股指上下波动很大。以前的牛市中,因新股的赚钱效应,一天之内,上万亿、几万亿的资金进出A股,无论在哪个市场也是承受不了的,在清理配资后更不可能出现了。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">  <strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;">本次申购是“</span>先</strong></span><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">中签</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">后</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">缴费</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">”的</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">方式,即使是</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">持股</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">较高</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">仓位</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">的</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">,也不会大幅减仓来打新,只需按新股中签的仓位卖掉相应的仓位即可筹集到相应资金,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">股市的一级、二级市场不会带来资金的大进大出,震荡幅度会较以前小很多。而且,因为市场上更多的人提前参加申购,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">可能每次参加申购的人数都会创了历史天量,中签率会极低,并创造“全民申购”的奇观。</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">那么,新股上市开盘后,就可能取得较高的市盈率,再次形成新股巨大的赚钱效应,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">二级市场不会有以往新股申购前后的巨震。因申购成功赚了大钱的新人,会有大部分人继续在二级市场“停留”一段时间,直至他再次巨亏后离开二级市场,但他们始终不会离开一级市场,除非IPO后没有什么赚钱效应了,那就又会重回熊市了。在此之前,市场不仅不会失血,还会被补血,股指还是看涨。</span></strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;"><strong>三、</strong></span><strong style="font-size: 20px;">保障牛市的</strong><strong style="font-size: 20px;">相关政策法规、技术因素极其措施</strong></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>1、市场多头环境转好</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  现在国家已经采取法律行政手段限制大股东减持,起码,在明年一月份前不会减持,只能买,不许卖,抓了几伙做空的人,国家队也进场买单,4500点之下不减持等</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">政策,各种手段都用上了,是为了维持股市的稳定向上,市场做空的情绪慢慢得到释放,多头再次聚集,人心稳定才利于股市的上涨。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>2、国家队维稳股市</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  国家队在股市暴跌后重仓介入股市,在清理配资盘后,筹码已经被控制,买卖的资源慢慢变得稀缺,上涨下跌都得看国家的意愿,难道国家队护盘了还想自己赔钱?</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  现在,筹码的供应相对减少了,市场逢利好后急于上拉抢筹就在情理之中。在跌破3507直至2850后,现已走出单边暴跌,缓慢盘整出</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">3000-</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">3250</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">和</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">3250-3400</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">两个平台,股市开始聚集人气。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;">  在向上突破3500之下的底部区域并没有放出巨量,已经说明3500之下的筹码锁定良好,我判断,这是国家队和主力的筹码!</span></strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">  当下就要冲击4000点之下的所有压力位,这个区域属于国家队初次进场救市时的筹码密集区,卖与不卖由国家队说了算,他要是想给自己解套,拉过4184.45的前高就没问题,也就是再次站上我多次讲过的4200点——大牛市起涨点位之上,再次发力向上,股市自然会在自己的惯性推动下再次向上运行,攀上承诺不减持的</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">4500点</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">,这样,国家队的护盘任务就</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">基本</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">完成了!股市会因资金推动继续自己的运行轨迹。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>3、股市筹码变得稀少</strong></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  国家队救市重仓持股,股市中的筹码又被国家队锁定,他在没有解套前是不会卖出筹码,盘中控制节奏的筹码当然不算在内,股市不会大跌,筹码稀少上拉就轻松!</span><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;">“</span></strong></span><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;">牛市开始启动</span></strong><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;">”的两个基本要素就形成了——<span style="text-decoration:underline;">“</span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;"><span style="text-decoration:underline;">低位</span></span></strong><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;"><span style="text-decoration:underline;">筹码稀缺”</span>和<span style="text-decoration:underline;">“主力被套”</span>。</span></strong></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  股指的持续上涨需要有赚钱效应,国家队锁定筹码就没有多少买入的机会,在涨升途中供不应求,适时开闸IPO就会提供较多的筹码。筹码上市引起的抢筹的行动会再次推动行情向上,走出此间震荡市的区间,再次回到牛市。<strong>只要新的筹码不是“</strong></span><strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px;"><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">天量</span></strong><strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;">”和“</strong><strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;">不择手段</span></strong><strong style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;">”地超发,市场是可以承载重启IPO的资金压力,股市不会再次暴跌,而接下来的可能还是上涨!</strong></div></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>4、股市上行为迎接IPO做好准备</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">  股指自上周三(20154-11-4)一棵中阳,</span></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">一举解放了连续三个多月在3400以下抵抗横盘的的全部筹码,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">连续三天强烈上涨,几乎收复了3600以下所有失地,抛压不是很大,说明熊市后人心思涨,国家队进场护盘救市的筹码不抛售,是国家坚持股市向上的证据。二级市场的流通股被国家队锁仓后,股市连续向上,</span><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;">至少说明,3400点之下的筹码是相对安全的,应该与进场救市的国家队成本相当!</span></strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  主力作战纵横千里,国家队作战没有千点以上的空间是不好进出的。</span></strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">所以,</span><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;"><strong>宏观上讲,不要以几点、几十点的行情论长期的牛熊,战略眼光要放得开。</strong></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>5、学习先进国家的救市经验</strong></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">  新闻报到,因为救市,A股的很大比例流通股已经被国家队直接和间接地买下,这部分资金也需要护盘成功后套现离场,既然发出4500之下不抛的承诺,股指不拉上4500,套现也是不可能的。不仅中国是这样的,美国、日本等国家都是如此。在金融海啸引发于“两房债券崩盘”的股灾中,美联储QE推出,买下两房的债券,在现在的牛市中已经可以套现创利了,日本央行现已买下大半个日本股市,在牛市中也可套现盈利。中国现在也在走的是这个路子,在国家队重仓A股的情况下,发动牛市就是必要的。</span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>6、大股东的减持前可能开始套现</strong></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">  国家队的重仓持股</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">,大股东的减持暂被禁止,有很多停牌的股票也已锁定了不少筹码,国家队开始入市护盘也在3500点上下几百点,这部分筹码至今没有什么盈利套现离场的空间,但这部分筹码是迟早要套现的。那离场的时间点在何时呢?上市公司的大股东不减持的承诺也是有时限的,不能禁止他永远不减持,国家队护盘的资金也得赶在大股东减持之前部分或全部套现,这是有时间限制的行动。所以,发动一轮牛市行情就有利国家队尽快套现离场,还能吸引场外资金继续进场推动股市上行,时间点就是规定的大股东可以减持股份之前,筹码会有高抛机会。</span></div></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div style="color: rgb(50, 62, 50); font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, SimSun; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>7、利于国企改革和充实社保资金</strong></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">  <strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;">国企改革的股权要混改,国企股份划拨社保,是社保入市的最安全的路线图,这是稳赚不赔的,而不是社保冒险入市接A股的盘,这是管理层已经定调的。</span></strong>社保的入市,除了现有上市公司的股份划拨外,新股上市的套现也会有社保的身影。而A股的点位一直在3400之下,不利于A股走出底部,社保套现的量和空间就很小,一旦抛压大了,跌破2850前低就可能发生。不要考虑股市的大跌就是要社保进场,下跌也不一定会吸引社保进场,除非跌的非常低,比如,跌到2000点附近或更深,在国家队重仓下,这可能吗?所以,股指在上周二跌到3302,即将向下寻底时,十三五规划出台,立即连续三天直线向上突破3400、3500,直奔3600,造成牛市启动的形态,吸引资金跟随进场,就可推动股市上行,有利国家队、社保将来的套现离场。</span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;">  可以预计的是,在注册制迟迟不能推出之前,社保套现的主要手段还是来自新股上市和国企股份划归社保后的逢高减持。</span></strong></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><strong>8、有利于国家创新发展</strong></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">  今年下半年IPO的暂停,使得前期投入创投和风投的资金一时找不到退出市场的渠道,资金被沉淀下来就会产生更多的坏账和呆账,后来人看到这样的情况,支持投入创业的资金就会非常谨慎,那谁还去关心什么“大众创新”?中国的技术创新会被延迟,长期不利于国家发展</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">。重启IPO就可开启资金退出的渠道,资金就有信心不断涌向支持创新的行业,经济结构和产业结构才就有可能得到改善,产业结构才能升级。正确的政策和法律法规的建设,就会引导资金流向正确的方向。这里要注意的是,散户能否挣钱就要由自己来好好把握,这就不是讨论的重点。</span></div><div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><strong>9、人民币国际化的需要</strong></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">  在人民币国际化的过程中,</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">必须</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">吸引外资增持人民币作为其国家储备,在欧元继续贬值,美元继续升值的预期下,人民币虽可能相对美元贬值,但对非美货币的升值也是大趋势,外国</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">政府、民间增持的人民币会以一定比例的金融资产的形式来增持A股,沪港通、沪伦通等正在</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">酝酿</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">启动中,增加股市供给是必要的,启动A股的牛市就正好帮助国家队拉抬股市。</span></div></div></div><div><strong style="font-size: 20px;">四、观察重点</strong></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;"><strong>1、发行市盈率会先低后高</strong></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">  不出意外的话,这首次重启的IPO的申购新股的申购人数比例,有可能是创了打新的历史天量,场内场外的资金都会积极申购,会让人感觉新股的抢购不亚于二十年前A股刚刚上市发行之时的市场狂热。新股发行的市盈率在开始时可能不会很高,是为了吸引资金入市抢购,很可能</span></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">会被护盘资金推向更高的价格才会被大量抛售,套现的价格空间和利润率也会很大。随着新股的赚钱效应的发散,发行市盈率也会不断提高,上市后接盘后的利润率也会缩小。跟随新股进入二级市场的部分资金还会有较大部分留在二级市场,继续炒作新股和次新股,则二级市场的增量资金得到补充,就能维持A股不会下跌。</span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;"><strong>2、3400的支撑必须有效</strong></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;<wbr/>  技术上讲,3507-3373的周线缺口实体部分是将来最近最有效的支撑,<span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px;"><strong>重点是围绕着3400的下方横盘区上沿的支撑的争夺</strong></span>。现在短线技术的走势应不会下破3507,即,<strong>日收盘不能低于3507!</strong>股市就是站稳了此周线缺口上沿的位置,也是3400之上3%的3502点位之上,是大盘走出低位横盘震荡并向上走牛的标志。从现在的形态看,对3400的上破很坚决,应该是中线反转的形态,逢低做多就是中线策略。</span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;"><strong>3、拉过国家队救市的点位</strong></span></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;<wbr/>  股指向上拉过国家队进场护盘的点位应该是这次上冲的中线行情的底线,国家队初次开始进场护盘的时点就在今年7月上旬,就是4000点左右,约3700上下300点,也就是初次护盘在3400-4000点之间,护盘的时间是否要在年底前完成?这个有待观察。</span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">  以日线计算,3500之下只有34%的获利筹码,3500至4000之间有约32%的筹码,4000点下的两个重要的横盘区内聚集了</span></span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">A股</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; font-size: 16px;">三分之二的筹码,是筹码最密集区间。由此计算,国家队和主力们持股巨大,<strong>这就从侧面验证了“国家队几乎持有半个A股”的新闻是可信的!</strong></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">  现在4000点之上的割肉速度很快,重启IPO后,4000之上的筹码会随着股市在冲击4000的震荡行情中被震出来,成交量应该还会被释放,筹码洗盘结束后,上方上涨空间打开就打开了,新的赚钱效应自然会加速资金流入股市,重回牛市,国家队护盘成功后就会找机会逐渐退出,也是开始重点控制仓位的时候。</span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;"><strong>4、注册制何时推出</strong></span></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;<wbr/>  注册制迟迟推不出来必要原因,其一,国家的政策法规尚未完善,一旦推出,以现行的法律法规和执行监管方式可能,更是股市的灾难,待各种制度健全后,推出就水到渠成,是咱们“死摸着石头过河”的特色决定的。其二,至少要给国家队解套吧?这都在不言中。</span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">  所以,关注</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">推出</span><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 24px; font-size: 16px;">注册制的相关消息,分析其利弊,是今后观察的一个方向,暂时还不是重点。</span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;"><strong>5、经济数据和不可测因素</strong></span></span></span></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;<wbr/>  经济数据不佳或不如预期,都是导致股市下跌的动因,不可预测的事件的发生,对股指都有很大的影响,必须要重视。即便股市从此开启了牛市行情,这种死多头的脑筋也是不可取的,战略上的看多预判,并不妨碍战术上做相关的避险,这是在风险市场中随时要注意的。</span></span></div></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div></div><div><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 30px; font-size: 20px;"><strong>五、</strong><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;"><strong>总结观点:</strong></span></span></div><div><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px; font-size: 16px;"><br></span></span></div><div><span style="color:#FF0000;word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 27px; font-size: 18px;"><span style="word-wrap: normal; word-break: normal; line-height: 21px;"><strong>  综上所述,我也一直长线看好A股,相信长线的“慢牛”行情会继续的观点是可信的,“</strong></span></span><strong style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-size: 18px;">长期慢牛行情可能正在启动</strong><strong style="font-size: 18px; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">”!而看长做短还是盘中要控制的,这就随个人的眼光、技术差异而大有不同,但逢低多买,逢高少卖是中长线持仓策略。</strong></div></div></div><p><br></p>