<p><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>银行保险券商,在今年四季度有投资价值么?&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>周期之王:券商&nbsp;</span></strong><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>先说下最近风头正劲的券商。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>券商并不是一个很好的值得长期持有的行业,这个在之前的文章《金融四部曲——证券:周期之王》中介绍过。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>大多数券商提供的是同质化服务,并且相互之间充分竞争,激烈的竞争不断压缩证券业的佣金收入,大多数券商没有核心竞争力或者说护城河,能把己从竞争中脱离出来。加上放开了开户的限制,客户可以更加自由的选择券商。加上互联网金融的冲击,未来超低佣金会成为主流。这更加剧了券商的竞争程度。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>不过券商的业绩和牛熊市高度相关,一旦市场有走牛预期,或者像ipo重启这样的利好,券商也会普涨。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>券商盈利极其不稳定,没法用PE估值,但净资产质量还是可以保证的,可以用PB来估值。券商在周期底部,全行业平均估值会降到1.5PB以下,大券商会更低,例如中信能到1.3PB。每一轮熊市的最低估值无法测量,但1.5PB以下都是比较低估的了。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>10月初其实是券商最好的时机,很多大券商PB都在1.5倍以下,安全性足够,现在的价格再入手其实已经不保险了。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>不过不要紧,我们还有保险股。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>稳健成长:保险&nbsp;</span></strong><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>我国保险是一个处于成长期的行业。无论从保险的密度还是广度都有一个很大的提升空间,从2014年的保费收入是2.02万亿,根据规划的话,到2020年保费收入将达到5万亿,复合增长16%以上。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>保险资金的运用渠道(投资渠道)也在不断突破。保费收入急剧增长,险资入市的比例也在提升。可以预见保险公司的长期业绩会获得提升。保险的增长来自于2项动力,一是业务增长,观察保费的增长趋势;二是投资回报,观察保险投资资金的回报情况。这2项构成了2个周期曲线,然后再把这2个曲线组合在一起分析保险的投资周期。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>保险同样也具备周期性,例如今年牛市很多保险股业绩也大增。虽然保险股的波动性小于券商,也是牛市不错的选择。更为重要的是,目前A股的几个保险,从内含价值的角度估值,都在1.1-1.3PEV,属于不错的低估估值。保险也是唯一的A股比H股还要低估的版块,成熟市场给保险股的估值比目前A股还要高,凸显出目前A股保险股的优势。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>以平安为例。2013年只有0.7PEV,增长到现在也只有1.1PEV左右。内含价值增长速度18%的寿险,1.8倍的PEV比较合适。当前平安从PEV角度也属于比较低估的,值得长期介入。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><strong><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>高股息稳健蓝筹:银行&nbsp;</span></strong><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>银行具备非常不错的商业模式,可以简单的看作是“两个收入,两个费用”:银行的收益=利息收入+非利息收入-利息费用-风险准备金=利差收益+非利息收入-风险准备金。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>银行并不像传统认知中的那样,是同质化的行业。不同银行之间的差异还是非常巨大的,未来会同时出现3pb和1pb的银行。具体行业分析可以参考《百业之母:银行》。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>能够从银行业中脱颖而出,长期稳健发展的银行,主要有三类:&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>·风控能力优秀,注重传统利差收益的银行,例如富国银行、招商银行;&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>·依赖区域经济发展的地区性银行,例如南京银行北京银行;&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>·注重非利息收入提升的银行,例如兴业银行。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>在经济周期景气的时候,银行业普遍高盈利,之间的区别基本看不出来,但到了经济不景气的时候,银行之间的差异化就会体现的比较明显。目前压制银行估值的主要因素仍然是宏观经济不景气,导致的资产质量不佳。不过部分银行的新增不良已经减缓甚至开始略微减少。不过几大行的不良问题仍然没有缓和,几大行减少了拨备覆盖率和拨贷比,意图保增长。&nbsp;</span><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><br style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; box-sizing: content-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px; white-space: normal;><span style="font-family: &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, sans-serif, &#39;Heiti SC light&#39;, &#39;Droid Sans&#39;, Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22.4px; text-indent: 0px;>当前银行平均股息率在3.5-4%之间,远高于10年期国债收益率的3%。如果银行经营稳健,资产质量可控,这种高股息还是非常难得的,适合作为长期收息资产配置。像经营优秀的浦发招商兴业,以及资产质量优秀同时市净率接近1的北京银行。&nbsp;</span></p>